Alabama-LSU game. My thoughts, predictions, and some history

The first game between Alabama and LSU was played in 1895. LSU won that first matchup in Death Valley, 12-6. So it goes back a long way.

We didn't start playing each other annually though until 1964.

In 1969, LSU beat Bama in Death Valley 20-15. It would be the last time they would beat Alabama in their home stadium for 31 years.

In 1999, LSU struggled to a 3-8 record. They were AWFUL that year. They lost to Auburn 41-7 that year. They lost to Kentucky 31-5 that year. They lost to Houston and Ole Miss. Imagine that now. Crazy, right?

Enter Nick Saban.

In 2000, in his first year at LSU, Saban coached them up to an 8-4 record. Those 8 wins included a 30-28 win over Alabama on Nov 4. On CBS. In Death Valley. LSU hadn't beaten Bama at HOME since 1969, and Saban got it done in his first year. They beat us again the next year before we knocked that smartass grin off Saban's face in a 31-0 beatdown in 2002. God, I hated Saban then. Crazy.

Saban again beat Alabama as the LSU coach in 2004, in Death Valley, making him 2-1 against Bama in Tiger Stadium after LSU hadn't won there in 31 years.

When Saban arrived at Bama in 2007, Alabama hadn't beaten LSU since that 31-0 game in 2002. And they lost to LSU in his first year, barely, at the end, and watched LSU go on to win a second national title in 4 years. Amazing, the program that Saban built LSU into in this past decade after they hadn't done much, really ever. If you ask me, LSU is STILL benefiting from the fact that Saban went there 12 years ago. If Saban were to leave Bama after this year, who believes we would just immediately fall off the map next year? Nobody. Any dipshit could coach Bama to 10 win seasons for the next 5 years if Saban left now. That's the kinda programs he builds.

Everyone remembers The Game Of The Century last November. Both teams had completely dominated everyone else up to that point in the season, and were ranked 1 and 2. It was a highly anticipated clash of the titans. It was an absolute dud. 

Saban went ultra conservative, didn't deviate too much from the plan of just running Trent Richardson up the middle, and got us into FG position 7 times. Bama went down the field fairly easily for the entire game, only to stall at that point and end up having to kick FG's. And we only made 2 of those FG's. So we lost 9-6 in overtime. LSU only got down the field on us a couple times throughout that entire game, but they made both of their FG attempts and so they tied us at the end of the game and then won it when we missed another FG in overtime. 

That first clash of the titans was a dud, as Bama's offense didn't play up to it's capabilities, despite the outstanding effort of the defense. 

When Bama got a rematch in the BCS National Championship Game in January, LSU's fate was all but sealed. You don't play a team like Bama the way that LSU did in November, barely squeak by due to Bama's own mistakes, and then come back and beat them again in a rematch. It rarely happens. Bama was the better team and they proved that in January. 21-0 was one of the most enjoyable games I've ever watched in my life. I've probably watched it 30 times since then. I'll have to watch it again at least once before Saturday.


All this offseason, LSU has had to think about last season and how great it was. How they went 13-0, won the SEC, against one of the toughest schedules of ALL TIME. And how it didn't matter when they had to face Bama again for the ultimate prize.

They've had the entire offseason to stew over the fact that Bama stole the whole season from them in one night.

In March, if you had asked me, I would've told you that I was predicting LSU to get their revenge on us this season and win it all this year. They had ALOT coming back. They had the Honey Badger coming back. They were barely losing anyone. They were losing their QB's Jefferson and Lee, but everyone agreed that was addition by subtraction.

Zach Mettenberger, a JUCO transfer after he didn't work out at Georgia, was supposed to come in and be the missing piece that LSU hasn't had for years, and that is an even GOOD quarterback. Mettenberger looked to be a GREAT one.

He started his career out at Georgia, a freshman in the same class as Aaron Murray. He and Murray competed for the job throughout spring and fall in 2009, before Mettenberger beat out Murray and won the starting job. Mettenberger was set to be UGA's starter as a freshman in 09, before he was arrested for raping a girl, and kicked off the team. And so Georgia went with the "backup plan", Aaron Murray.

Everyone knows how good Aaron Murray has been the past couple seasons. Everyone figured if Mettenberger beat out Aaron Murray at first, then he had to at least be THAT good, if not better.

So far this season, it looks like we all figured wrong on that one. Mettenberger has looked nothing but confused and in over his head the entire season. He's gotten sacked too many times, basically looking like he doesn't belong in the SEC.

LOL

All of that doesn't rest entirely upon his shoulders, as LSU has lost THREE of their starting offensive linemen since the season started. They lost their best lineman, LT Chris Faulk, before the season even started. They've barely been physical up front and haven't protected him much this year. Auburn was in his face all night in their game.

But it's not just the O-Line. LSU has lost at least 16 players since the SPRING GAME. That's over half a recruiting class worth of players, 20% of your scholarship players that you were expecting to have this year, that are not there now. For various reasons. Academics, arrests, injuries etc. We all know the story of the Honey Badger at this point.

So the mighty LSU team that I was expecting to see this season hasn't come to fruition. For every reason. They only scored 12 points in their narrow victory over Auburn. They only scored 6 points in their LOSS to Florida. How are they gonna beat Alabama like that? Alabama has the best defense in the nation (AGAIN), and one that is so MUCH better than Auburn's especially.

Alabama is also averaging 40 points a game this year on offense. The average score of their SEC games is 42-7 Bama. It hasn't just been the defense, as it has been in the past. It's every area of the team. Alabama has thrown for AND rushed for almost the same number of yards this season. AJ McCarron has YET to throw one single interception and he has thrown 18 touchdowns. The offensive line is the best in the country and the running game hasn't missed a beat, even without their greatest RB of ALL TIME Trent Richardson.

LSU's defensive line is probably the best area of the team but they will get cancelled out by Bama's offensive line. On the other side, Bama's defensive line and linebackers should have a field day with this patchwork line that LSU is throwing together on offense and the statue at quarterback. I expect at least 2 interceptions from Molestenberger. At least.

Bobby Hebert, an LSU legend, whose son currently plays for LSU, said on a radio show in Baton Rouge a few weeks ago that all that team cares about this year is beating Bama. That's all they want out of this season is to get revenge on Bama. They don't even care if they lose a game or two, as long as they beat Bama.

Well that kinda thinking got them ALMOST beaten by sorry ass 1-7 Auburn, and it GOT them beat against Florida.

Saturday night, in Death Valley, they are looking to make up for all that. They are looking for redemption. 

And they are not going to get it

If the Alabama team that we have seen so far this year plays the LSU team we have seen so far this year, the score could be pretty much exactly what we have seen from every other Bama game, regardless of the opponent. Bama could dominate them just in the way they dominated Mississippi St. 

One of LSU's defensive linemen said that they were going to win by being more physical than us, by "out-physicalling" us, as he put it. Good one.

I'm counting on LSU to have their act together, as important as this game is. I'm counting on a couple big plays from LSU, and I also figure that at SOME point this year, AJ McCarron has to throw a pick. I mean, he HAS to, right? This is the toughest game left on Bama's schedule, including the one the first week of December that isn't scheduled yet, and possibly the one in January if they win out.

With all that said, I think it comes down to this simple analysis:

Can LSU score 20 points on Bama? I don't think so. I don't think they SHOULD score more than 10, when you consider how they have looked so far. But I figure it to be damn near IMPOSSIBLE for them to reach 20. I'm putting their score at 13.

Can LSU possibly STOP Alabama from scoring at least 20? I don't think they should be able to keep Bama under 30, but I think they'll play up to the moment and give Bama it's best, and maybe ONLY, test of the year. 

I think it will be close at the half, but Bama will put it away in the 4th, maybe even the 3rd.

Alabama 27
LSU 13

But don't be surprised if it's a bigger beatdown than that. I won't be.

In the last 244 games, LSU has only been shutout 3 times. Only 3 times. All 3 games were against Alabama. In Louisiana. At night. 

My Alabama-Mississippi State Preview, Prediction, and Thoughts

The fact that MSU fans are trying so hard to let everyone know they believe is a good sign that they probably don't.

This year AJ McCarron has thrown the exact same number of INTs as Mississippi St has won national titles in their HISTORY. In all NCAA sports COMBINED: 0

Tonight, Alabama will face an SEC opponent that is undefeated. They are 7-0. They are a division rival. And Alabama is a 24 point favorite. I can't help but laugh at the level of national disrespect that MSU is getting going into this game. This is the first time since 1942 that Alabama and Mississippi State are facing each other, while BOTH being undefeated.

But I think it's more a show of respect for everything we have seen from Bama, than a slight of the Bulldogs. MSU has played the weakest SEC schedule so far, only having to beat Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Other than that, they have played Troy, Middle Tennessee, Jackson State, and South Alabama. Any MSU team from the past 5 years would be at LEAST 6-1 against that stretch. They front loaded their schedule to allow for the most early success, for confidence reasons or whatever. Either way, it has worked like a charm. They are still gonna lose at least 2 games, including the one tonight and to LSU. Ole Miss and Arky aren't gimme's either. Especially the Rebels, IMO.

Stats, Comparisons, And Rankings

While it is true that State has the exact same record as Alabama, if you look deeper you will see a stark contrast in the two teams.

Defense: Bama is ranked No. 1 in the nation. State is 25th
Passes Defended: Bama is 16th in the nation. State is 52nd
Sacks: Bama is 21st in the nation. State is 82nd.

63% of State's rushing yards and 73% of their TD's have come against Non-SEC opponents.
The opposite is true of Bama. 66% of yards and 77% of our TD's have been against SEC teams.

State has the SEC's leading individual rusher in LaDarius Perkins, but he is their bellcow. 

As a TEAM, Alabama is 2nd in the SEC in rushing, while MSU is 7th. The combo of Lacy/Yeldon beats the HELL out of Perkins. Perkins has 724 yards. Lacy and Yeldon have combined for over 1,100, each with around 570

Nationally, Alabama is 20th in rushing. State is only 47th.

Bama is 14th in the nation in scoring offense. State is 27th.

State has the edge in turnovers forced with 21 to Bama's 20, but 8 of their 12 INTs have come against the Non-SEC sissies I have mentioned.

State is 56th in the nation in passing offense, while Bama is only 75th, but Bama LEADS THE NATION in passing efficiency. We don't make mistakes. At all. EVER.

In the SEC, Miss St ranks behind or about the same as Tennessee in every offensive category. And we saw what Bama's D did to the Vols.

State's QB Tyler Russell has been impressive, throwing 15 TD's and only 1 INT. Bama counters with better numbers there, as AJ McCarron has thrown 16TD's and ZERO (0!!!) INTs

As far as the corners go, Dee Milliner and Johnthon Banks compare favorably, and some people disagree on which one is the best in the SEC.

Milliner has had 25 passes thrown his way this season. The TOTAL yardage for the opposing QBs on those 25 passes: 77 yards.

I'll give the edge to Dee.

As far as stopping the run, State is only 47th in the nation (Same as their rushing offense. Weird). But they are 47th in the nation at stopping the run. And this despite the fact that they have yet to face a team that poses even a remote threat to run the ball. Alabama's offensive line and running game is going to be NFL level compared to what State has seen this year. And they have been AVERAGE against what they have seen this year so far. HUGE advantage to Alabama here.

****

There are plenty more stats and I could go on and on, but suffice it to say that, while it's great that MSU is 7-0, and they have every right to believe in their team, Alabama is CLEARLY the better team here and it's not really that close. 

The 24 pt line is about right, but I'll go a step further and say that Bama wins even bigger. It might be within 14 at the half. Something like 20-6. But I think Bama will run away with it in the end.

Alabama 48
Miss St 9

Nick Saban has a message for Alabama fans for this game:

At Mississippi State, they believe. At Alabama, we know. Roll Tide